SWIFT forecasts continued momentum in the growth of the UK and US economies.
Based on an average of 2 million SWIFT payments messages per day, the SWIFT Index produces quarterly GDP growth nowcasts and forecasts for the UK, EU27, Germany, US and OECD economies and is available on a monthly basis for download at SWIFT.com.
One year on from its inception, the SWIFT Index continues to forecast improvement in the UK economy, with an anticipated year-on-year GDP growth rate of 2.6% by Q1 2014.
Despite a shaky October with the US economy at risk of a default, the SWIFT Index predicts further economic expansion for the US in the new year with a 2.2% year- on-year GDP growth rate expected by Q1 2014.
The SWIFT Index continues to be optimistic for EU27 growth, forecasting a steady climb out of recession in Q1 2014 with a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 0.9% anticipated - higher than current expectations for Q4 2013.
Similarly, the German economy should continue its steady recovery from 0.6% in Q3 2013 to 1.6% year-on-year growth by Q1 2014.
Underpinning the combined regional growth, the OECD region continues to grow at a strong year-on-year GDP growth rate, reaching 1.5% by Q1 2014.
“Since launching the SWIFT Index in October 2012, we have seen a great deal of success, particularly in forecasts for UK and US economic recovery, post financial crisis," says Andre Boico, Head of Pricing & Analytics, SWIFT. “As we move into the New Year, the future is bright for the UK and US economies, with the global economy not far behind.”