RISK MANAGEMENT

IMF: Global Upswing in Economic Activity is Strengthening

Global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percent in 2018, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The growth forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 are 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with the April 2017 WEO forecast.

Growth is projected to rise over this year and next in emerging market and developing economies, supported by improved external factors—a benign global financial environment and a recovery in advanced economies.

Growth in China and other parts of emerging Asia remains strong, and the still-difficult conditions faced by several commodity exporters in Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and sub-Saharan Africa show some signs of improvement.

In advanced economies, the notable 2017 growth pickup is broad based, with stronger activity in the United States and Canada, the euro area, and Japan.

But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies.

Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp stepdown in foreign earnings continues. And while short-term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside.

For policymakers, the welcome cyclical pickup in global activity provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle key challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks.

 

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