Terrorist Attacks on the Rise in China; Pakistan and Philippines Are 'Extreme Risk' Countries

Terrorist attacks are on the rise in China, while Pakistan and the Philippines have been tagged as 'extreme risk' countries, reveals a new security monitoring service from global risk analytics company Maplecroft.

The Maplecroft Terrorism and Security Dashboard (MTSD) Global also revealed that global fatalities from acts of terrorism have risen 30% over the last 12 months compared to the previous five year average.

Apart from China, Egypt, Kenya and Libya are also seeing the most significant increases in the risk of terrorist attacks.

Globally, the MTSD recorded 18,668 fatalities in the 12 months prior to July 1st, up 29.3% from an annual average of 14,433 for the previous five years.

Over the same period the MTSD recorded 9,471 attacks at an average of 26 a day, down from a five year average of 10,468, revealing that terrorist methods have become increasingly deadly over the last year.

The MTSD classifies 12 countries as ‘extreme risk,’ many of which are blighted by high levels of instability and weak governance. These include: Iraq (most at risk), Afghanistan (2nd), Pakistan (3rd), Somalia (4th), Yemen (6th), Syria (7th), Lebanon (9th) and Libya (10th).

However, of particular concern for investors, the important growth economies of Nigeria (5th), the Philippines (8th), Colombia (11th) and Kenya (12th) also feature in the category.

The MTSD also reveals that attacks are on the rise in China (32nd and ‘medium risk’), many of which have targeted transportation hubs. Fatalities in 2014 have reached 76, compared to 16 over the first six months of 2013.

The economic impacts of terrorism are so far negligible, but as China pushes for unconventional hydrocarbon development, foreign companies are likely to be involved in shale gas/oil exploration in the restive hydrocarbon rich western Xinjiang province, the frontline of Han-Uyghur tension.

Increased repression in the region means the security situation is likely to worsen, says Maplecroft.

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