Opening the Books: Assessing Local Government Credit Risk in China

This report from The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) looks at the credit risk of local governments in China. The findings are based on looking at proprietary data and forecasts along with bottom-up research. 

The report evaluate the credit risk across 30 province-level authorities in China, spread across four pillars: macroeconomic, fiscal, financial and policymaking factors. 

The wealthy eastern coastal provinces generally rank the least credit risk, with Guangdong to top the overall ranking. However, the research shows significant disparities in credit risks and are inconsistent with the view of China's provincial governments universally warrant in AAA credit rating. 


  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
  • Overall findings
  • Macroeconomic risk pillar
  • Fiscal risk pillar
  • Financial risk pillar
  • Policymaking risk pillar
  • Conclusion 

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