OECD Leading Indicators Continue to Signal Economic Expansion

OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) in January 2010 continue to signal an improvement in economic activity for the G7 countries although only marginally more so than in the assessment for December. Meanwhile, the CLIs for Brazil and India point to a recovery, which may nevertheless lose momentum. By contrast, economic activity is projected to continue to expand in China and Russia.

 

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.8 point in January 2010 and was 11.3 points higher than in January 2009, the increase was spread evenly among CLIs of the United States (increase of 11.0 points year-on-year), the Euro area (12.5 points higher) and Japan (10.7 points higher). The CLI for China increased by a mere 0.1 point in January 2010 compared with the previous month.

 

The OECD CLI is designed to provide early signals of turning points (peaks and troughs) between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity.

 

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