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After a year of heightened global political unrest, a major new report – the Political Risk Atlas 2012, the fourth annual atlas released by risk analysis firm Maplecroft, has identified some of the most significant political risks for business and investors in 2012 and beyond.

According to Maplecroft’s analysis these include the risk of continuing instability in the Arab Spring countries, potential societal unrest and regime instability in Belarus, Guinea Bissau, Iran, Sudan, Turkmenistan and Viet Nam, as well as an increasing risk of resource nationalism in commodity producers with poor or inadequate levels of democratic governance, such as Angola, DR Congo, Guinea, Myanmar and Zimbabwe.

Maplecroft’s results also reveal decreased risk and greater opportunity in many of the world’s growth economies, including the BRIC and “Next Eleven” countries, particularly Mexico, Indonesia and the Philippines, and also in markets as Thailand, Liberia and Bolivia.

Counting as one of the key variables, strong growth and investment potential in these countries helps provide the conditions for greater human security and improved living standards and socio-economic development.
 

Key investment risks and opportunities identified by the Political Risk Atlas 2012 include:

    * Reduced long and short-term risk profiles for BRIC and N11 countries, including: Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines, signalling good investment potential
    * Continuing instability in Arab Spring countries, with increased risk of unrest in Saudi Arabia and Sudan
    * Elevated risk of political violence affecting oil and gas companies in the MENA region, including heightened terrorist activity and / or sabotage, especially in Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Morocco
    * Potential risk of forced regime change in Bangladesh, Belarus, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Iran, Madagascar, Turkmenistan and Viet Nam deriving from a combination of political, social and economic conditions that reflect those seen in the Arab Spring countries
    * A rising global trend for resource nationalism in hydrocarbon and mineral rich nations including Venezuela, Guinea, DR Congo, Russia, Bolivia and Nigeria

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