Investors' perception on renminbi (RMB) value has been a key to the growth of RMB abroad. But even if some owners of RMB no longer expect the historic rate of appreciation and the zeal to accumulate RMB outside of the Chinese Mainland may eventually be reduced by that change in expectations, potential returns on RMB investments should continue to increase.
And that will coincide with the development of more diversified and higher quality investment opportunities for the currencies in Hong Kong and other markets, according to professional services firm, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu (Deloitte) at the Asian Financial Forum 2012 in Hong Kong.
Deloitte says major currencies for trade and investment experienced severe volatility during 2011, and only RMB continued its six-year steady appreciation, which has seen gradual, but predictable appreciation against the U.S. dollar of over 30%.
The universal perception that RMB would continue to appreciate has also prompted the meteoric rise in RMB bank holdings outside the Chinese Mainland, Dim Sum bonds, borrowing, non-deliverable forward (NDF) and deliverable forward (DF) markets, trade settlement, and capital account settlement.
"Returns have been lower for offshore RMB relative to its onshore counterpart," says Chaly Mah, Chief Executive Officer, Deloitte Asia Pacific. "To support the role of RMB, it is necessary to facilitate a better return of RMB offshore to maintain the interest of investors in the currency."
As the two major offshore RMB centres, Hong Kong and Singapore, are free to offer different types of RMB investment products, this would contribute to the higher diversity for RMB investment opportunities, adds Mah.
"There has been discussion if the RMB has now reached a value that we call "market equilibrium" among the world's major trading and investment currencies. At this value, the RMB would increase and decrease under the influence of market drivers normally associated with the currency trends," says Mah.
Despite the continued policy constraints of trading bands and capital account controls, Deloitte said RMB is now sufficiently exposed to market forces outside of the Chinese Mainland and its value is increasingly shaped by markets.
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