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While the latest Composite Leading Indicators of (CLIs) of several countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show strong signals of recovery, they should be interpreted with caution as the expected improvement in economic activity can be partly attributed to a decrease in the estimated long term potential level and not solely an improvement in economic activity itself.

The OECD says that the CLIs for September 2009 point strongly to growth in Italy, France, United Kingdom and China, while tentative signals of expansion have emerged in Canada and Germany. “A recovery is clearly visible in the United States, Japan and all other OECD economies and major non-OECD economies,” notes the organisation.

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 1.3 point in September 2009 and was 3.4 points higher than in September 2008. The CLI for the United States increased by 1.4 point in September, 1.4 point higher than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 1.4 point in September, 6.3 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Japan increased by 1.3 point in September, 0.7 point lower than a year ago.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 1.7 point in September 2009 and was 7.0 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Canada increased by 1.6 point in September, 4.6 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for France increased by 1.3 point in September, 8.4 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Germany increased by 2.0 points in September, 5.7 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Italy increased by 1.3 point in September, 10.8 points higher than a year ago.

The CLI for China increased 1.6 point in September 2009, 7.0 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for India increased by 0.8 point in September, 2.7 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Russia increased by 1.5 point in September, 6.7 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Brazil increased by 0.4 point in September, 7.1 points lower than a year ago.

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