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2012, May 23

Hong Kong Bracing For Turbulent Times Ahead

Hong Kong Bracing For Turbulent Times Ahead

by CFO Innovation Asia Staff, 18 January 2012
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Hong Kong businesses fear that business growth will become more difficult in 2012.

 

The most recent figures from Grant Thornton International Business Report show that the polarisation of business confidence between Europe and the rest of the world is becoming increasingly apparent.

 

The latest research shows that global business optimism in Q4 of 2011 stands at net 0 percent, indicating a balance between those business leaders feeling optimistic about their economies in 2012 and those feeling pessimistic. It represents a further deterioration from 3 percent in Q3 2011 and 31 percent in Q2 of 2011.

 

In Hong Kong, businesses also experienced a large plunge in business optimism to 10 percent in Q4 of 2011, down from 42 percent in Q3. Overall in 2011, Hong Kong’s business optimism index dropped 23 percentage points from 2010. The business optimism of Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) and mainland China dropped 24 and 27 percentage points respectively.

 

The times ahead present challenges to Hong Kong businesses to sustain trade momentum.

 

Profitability and revenue expectations in Hong Kong both fell by 24 percent in Q4 of 2011 over the last quarter, while optimism for exports over the next 12 months plunged by 30 percent compared to the last quarter. Profitability remains strong in mainland China with 61 percent of businesses expecting to increase profitability in 2012.

 

“Hong Kong is bracing itself for some turbulent times ahead," says Daniel Lin, managing partner of Grant Thornton Jingdu Tianhua.

 

Lin says the survey revealed that inflation will continue to be a concern in 2012 as selling prices are expected to grow while business expectations for increasing revenues and profits remain low.

 

"Hong Kong businesses have to work harder than ever to maintain margins and competitiveness in the face of strong economic headwinds,” adds Lin.

 

A myriad of constraints continue to hinder Hong Kong businesses. The proportion of businesses citing rising costs in finance rose by 30 percentage points over the past three months, up from 8 percent in Q3 of 2011. Moreover, 64 percent of businesses considered shortage of orders a major constraint, up 52 percent from last quarter, reflecting difficult business.

 

 

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