Companies in all major industries must act to manage the effects that global aging patterns will have both on their workforces and their customers if they hope to stay competitive in the coming decades, according to a new report by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
According to the report, the forces behind the demographic shift are simple: people are living longer and having fewer children.
In the developed countries, the average life expectancy increased from about 66 years in 1950 to roughly 78 years in 2010. Over the same time period, fertility rates fell from 2.8 to 1.7 (measured as children per female). Rapidly developing economies (RDEs) are seeing their life expectancies and fertility rates approach those in developed countries.
Globally, the dependency ratio, which measures the number of people aged 65 and older for every 100 people of workforce age, rose from about 8 in 1950 to 12 in 2010—and will further rise to an estimated 25 by 2050.
“We are witnessing an unprecedented, fundamental shift,” says Jan Willem Kuenen, a BCG partner and a coauthor of the report. “The trends in motion represent the development of a new demographic equilibrium that will have social, political, and economic ramifications. The effects on companies in all major industries will be substantial.”
The report says that global aging will affect companies along four core dimensions: labour, growth, capital, and consumer needs.
The study notes that older workforces and scarcer labor will lead to two principal challenges for companies: maintaining high productivity and ensuring sufficient labour availability.
To sustain productivity, companies must find ways to make the workplace “age friendly” (especially for physically demanding jobs), promote fitness and health consciousness, and maintain motivation as people advance in their careers.
As for labour capacity, the expected outflow of human capital will require careful planning and transfers of expertise on an unprecedented scale. Globally, in 2010, there were roughly 0.3 people retiring for each person entering the workforce; by 2050, that number will more than double to 0.7.
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